Impact of the Middle East Turmoil on the Global and Regional Arenas, and How to Address the Threat

There is a paradigm of terrorism that creates a cycle between instability which breeds terrorism and terrorism which breeds instability. The problem at hand is how to address this vicious circle.

Is a democracy, dictatorship, or Sharia state preferable in a terrorist environment? Sometimes it is preferable to choose a dictatorship to prevent a democracy from enabling the Sharia state to take over. Of course, we should hope for an enlightened dictatorship that cherishes stability, security and the welfare of its citizens.

Classic vs. Jihadi Terrorism: In the 1970’s there was a watershed line between classic terrorism and contemporary terrorisms. Classic terrorism is local and secular. It is characterized by its national aspiration for self-determination and solidarity amongst secular organizations. It follows Socialist/Marxist ideology and has a weak local message. In contrast, Jihadi terrorism is global and religious-radical. It has an imperialist aspiration for a Theocratic-Muslim world and finds solidarity through religion. Jihadi terrorism follows Muslim/Theological ideology and had a strong global message in real-time.

There are certain pre-conditions and conducive factors for the survival and growth of terrorism. Political instability and/or a political vacuum can form and/or grow terrorism. In addition, financial resources are necessary as well as media as a force to multiply followers. Free communication, mainly through the internet and social networks, allows for a network and the sharing of information which contributes to survival and growth of a terrorist group. Also, militant resources are crucial including territory for training, preparing and launching terrorist attacks.

The Middle East is one big quagmire of instability which is a major component of the threat it poses on global and regional arenas. The threat is supported by the abundance of financial support that comes from states supporting terrorism, various political and economic wealthy groups, interested wealthy religious entities, donations and big profits cooperation with organized crime. Terrorism receives free media coverage in real-time and globally. The internet is the ideal communication source of any terrorist as it allows for mass communication of their message and networking within their organization.

The threat can be broken down into five categories: divine command, willingness to commit suicide, weapons of mass destruction (chemical and biological already in place), virtual deployment, and the message. Divine command has no existence and is viewed as a Jihadist Holy war which is a war of awe and shock. There is no need for provocation by heretics. The willingness to commit suicide for the sake of Islam is a commandment. The bomber becomes a martyr (Sha’hid) and his family earns the respect of the community. Weapons of mass destruction embodies the idea that the end justifies the means, fewer bombers could kill more heretics. Virtual deployment is characterized by an amorphous organization with no headquarters, no hierarchy and fluid tactics. Lastly, a major threat comes from the message spread by organizations through free worldwide press coverage in real-time.

The free world global cooperation is a pre-requisite for success in fighting terrorism. The building blocks of strategy against terrorism include intelligence sharing, operational cooperation, blocking financial flow, sharing in research and development of the most advanced technologies, streamline in legal legislation, and global anti-terrorism bodies. The Former Secretary of the United States Homeland Security, John Ashcroft, sums up the situation by stating “international terrorism made international cooperation mandatory rather than elective.”

Post September 11, 2001 until 2008 there was a huge leap in organizational reforms such as Homeland Security. Terrorism became the first priority on the list of threats and budget allocation. There were also great strides in research and development. There were also advancements in the development of new military doctrines and technologies as well as legislation.

Since the Global Financial Crises in 2008, the overall landscape tips in favor of terrorism. This is seen through Western democracies priorities changing to domestic issues. American withdrawal from Iraq and Afghanistan have proved to the leaders of radical Islam that America is tired of wars.

President Obama’s attitude of Libya is that is leading from behind whereas he views Mubarak as putting democracy above all. Further, Obama views Syria as passing their initiative to Putin. In terms of Sisi, he validates the Muslim Brotherhood as a legitimate player in the terrorism threat. As far as Iran, the emphasis needs to be on negotiation rather than containment. His attitude is that terrorism “…is a “Death Blow” to the perception of America as the Savior of the world (security & political stability precursors to economic growth, which is a precursor to democracy).

In my humble opinion, Europe’s perception is of an entity that has lost its compass. Instead of pursuing federal unity it goes the other way around (ie., results of the last election to the EU Parliament; Brexit, etc.). From 1945 through 1990 there was a bi-polar world. In 1990 there was a shift to a uni-polar world (USA) until the multi-polar world emerged in 2005. A multi-polar world will play to the hands of radicals.

There is some indicative phenomena that radical Islam has not yet reached its zenith. This phenomenon views the “Spring-Revolutions” as a catalyst to extremism and fanaticism with no case of successful transition of political regime. Further, in Tom Fridmans opinion, “the social networks only succeeded to reach the heights of the minarets.” Homegrown terrorists are a force-multiplier and a strategic threat as they continue to grow. Since the revolution in Libya, radical Islam has spread southward till Benin and Togo, causing havoc to the content. Further – the abduction of 400 girls in Nigeria, the use of chemical warfare, and the use of IEDs in a scale that had never been seen before – all serve as indications that radical terrorism has not yet exhausted its means of terror. The flooding of immigrants in Europe serves Radical Islam. The present campaign against ISIS is promising but if the west does not have a plan for the day after, this campaign may end up like the Iraqi and Afghani wars.

The fight against terrorism is reliant on strategy, operation and tactical tools, and ideology. International legitimacy is needed in many actions. First, the right to self-defense as a justification for pre-emptive strikes and targeted killings needs to be viewed as legitimate by international players. International fighters against terrorism also need to deem heads of states that support terrorism as legitimate targets as are the heads of terrorist organizations, including religious, political and military leaders. Lastly, the transfer of war to the territory of a state that supports terrorism is legitimate.

Consequential to the international and embracing nature of terrorism, one must internalize insights and translate them into tools. The operation and tactical components of the fight against terrorism require the enhancement of means of intelligence gathering for all weather conditions, day or night, through hideouts, from underground, etc. Additionally, there needs to be improvement of sensors based gathering tools for the collection of samples and material found in the air. There needs to be development of sophisticated search engines that work to identify funds related to terrorist groups and their flow. Another necessary component is the enhancement of intelligence cooperation systems among states and amongst friendly intelligence agencies to a level of cooperation in real time. There also needs to be trust amongst friendly intelligence agencies to allow for the development of operational cooperation amongst friendly intelligence agencies despite the reasonable reservations about exposing their tools and methods. In order to focus the efforts towards the heads of terrorist organizations, one should maximize the utilization of real time intelligence, target acquisition and precision weapons. To maximize intelligence, there should be cooperation amongst intelligence agencies in the Humint arena which combines the relative advantages of each organization.

In terms of ideology in fighting terrorism, several conditions – which currently seem utopian – must coexist including culture-based cooperation. The leaders of international terrorism are in minority amongst the 1.3 billion Muslims in the world. The West must create a dialogue with the moderate Islamic leaders and convince them to act against radical Islam and its terrorist envoys. Further moderate Islamic leaders need to be convinced that there is no expectancy in terrorism, solely the continuation of decline of Islam. It is better to reach coexistence with a modus operandi with the Western World, which will facilitate the development and flourishing of both cultures.

Economic based cooperation is also a critical component. The fact that since the end of World War I, Islam is in a process of political, economic, cultural and scientific decline, introduces additional elements to the conflict. Many members of the Islamic world suffer from hunger, poverty and despair. Those elements feed and breed terrorism. A content population, even under occupation, would prefer negotiation for national autonomy over armed struggle. Consequently, the first step is to aid those underdeveloped economies, even prior to the attempts to educate the Islamic people to democracy. Market place economies would serve as a catalyst in the future and assist in the process of democratization.

Terrorism cannot exist without territory; thus the action taken must be against states that support terrorism. This effort requires international organization. The United Nations is a natural home for such an organization. For obvious reasons it is reluctant to execute this role. If a comprehensive international consensus cannot be achieved, it is suggested to commence with the “league of states that fight terrorism,” to which additional states would join-in in the future. From this an international definition for terrorism would be achieved. I suggest that terrorism Is the use of violence against civilians with the aim of promoting political objectives. The source of authority for this organization would be an agreed convention, agreed upon by the founders. There would be experts originating from different countries, who will investigate the involvement of states and organizations in terrorism. The organization would create an involvement scale defined by type and level of gravity. An on-going update of the states that are involved with terrorism would be published, based on the type of involvement and its gravity. The states in the international organization would acknowledge the need and duty to punish states for their involvement with terrorism. States that are involved with terrorism will be penalized, based upon a fixed scale which will be defined. The scale will match the different types of involvement, to shift the balance of interests of those states and convince them that supporting terrorism is not worthwhile. Further, there would be a secondary embargo with states and companies which sustain connections (in the open/secretive, economic or others) with states which are embargoed for their involvement with terrorism. A permanent interventional mechanism for the fight against terrorism will be established. Amongst others, its goals would be to scrutinize punishment of states that are involved with terrorism, and to deter any deviation.

There is no international organization which is authorized to sanction terrorism and human rights violations perpetrated in the name of religion. There are many voices, in recent years, that call for establishing an international religious council, which will formulate the ground rules for preventing and sanctioning wars, terrorism and human rights violations in the name of religion. This council should be comprised of representatives from the main world religion (monotheistic in particular), and should also include legislators, social scientists and educators.

The bottom line is that if all those recommendations, or even most of them, are accepted and implemented, I have no doubt that terrorism as a global threat, will shrink to the scale of human disease or car accidents, and will be contained.